한국농림기상학회지, 제 11권 제4호(2009) (pISSN 1229-5671, eISSN 2288-1859)
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 11, No. 4, (2009), pp. 221~232
DOI: 10.5532/KJAFM.2009.11.4.221
ⓒ Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License.


겨울기온 상승에 따른 복숭아 나무 ‘장호원황도’ 품종의
결과지에 대한 동상해위험 공간분석:
III. 고해상도 기후시나리오에 근거한 동해위험의 미래분포

정유란, 김진희, 김수옥, 서희철, 윤진일
경희대학교 생태시스템공학과

(2009년 12월 07일 접수; 2009년 12월 19일 수정; 2009년 12월 21일 수락)

Geospatial Assessment of Frost and Freeze Risk in
‘Changhowon Hwangdo’ Peach (Prunus persica) Trees as
Affected by the Projected Winter Warming in South Korea:
III. Identifying Freeze Risk Zones in the Future
Using High-Definition Climate Scenarios

Uran Chung, Jin-Hee Kim, Soo-Ock Kim, Hee-Cheol Seo, Jin I. Yun
Department of Ecosystem Engineering, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 446-701, Korea

(Received December 07, 2009; Revised December 19, 2009; Accepted December 21, 2009)

ABSTRACT
The geographical distribution of freeze risk determines the latitudinal and altitudinal limits and the maximum acreage suitable for fruit production. Any changes in its pattern can affect the policy for climate change adaptation in fruit industry. High-definition digital maps for such applications are not available yet due to uncertainty in the combined responses of temperature and dormancy depth under the future climate scenarios. We applied an empirical freeze risk index, which was derived from the combination of the dormancy depth and threshold temperature inducing freeze damage to dormant buds of ‘Changhowon Hwangdo’ peach trees, to the high-definition digital climate maps prepared for the current (1971-2000), the near future (2011-2040) and the far future (2071-2100) climate scenarios. According to the geospatial analysis at a landscape scale, both the safe and risky areas will be expanded in the future and some of the major peach cultivation areas may encounter difficulty in safe overwintering due to weakening cold tolerance resulting from insufficient chilling. Our test of this method for the two counties representing the major peach cultivation areas in South Korea demonstrated that the migration of risky areas could be detected at a sub-grid scale. The method presented in this study can contribute significantly to climate change adaptation planning in agriculture as a decision aids tool.

Keyword: Freeze injury, Freeze risk, Peach trees, Risk mapping, Climate change

MAIN

적요

본 연구는 겨울철 휴면심도와 동해유발온도를 기반으로 작성된 복숭아 나무 ‘장호원황도’ 품종의 휴면지에 대한 동해위험지수 계산식을 고해상도 전자기후도와 결합하여 현재평년(1971-2000년)의 기후조건에서 동해위험의 지역적 분포를 파악하였다. 이를 기준으로 두고 기후변화 시나리오에 근거한 미래 3개 평년(2011-2040년, 2041-2070년, 2071-2100년)의 기온자료에 동일한 방법을 적용하여 얻은 동해위험지수와 비교함으로써 기후변화에 따른 이들 위험지역의 이동을 경관규모에서 추적하였다. 현재평년(1971-2000년) 기후조건에서는 전 국토의 4%가 안전지대, 88%가 동해위험 경계지대, 8%가 위험지대로 탐색되었다. 시나리오 기후조건에서는 가까운 미래(2011-2040년)와 먼 미래(2041-2100년)에 모두 경계지대가 줄어드는 반면 안전지대와 위험지대가 다같이 증가하였다. 이 방법은 경기도 이천, 경북 청도 등 복숭아 주산지 내의 위험지대를 경관규모에서 탐색하는 데도 이용될 수 있음이 확인되었으므로 앞으로 농업분야 기후변화 영향평가 및 취약성 분석에 기여할 것으로 기대된다.

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