한국농림기상학회지, 제 11권 제4호(2009) (pISSN 1229-5671, eISSN 2288-1859)
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 11, No. 4, (2009), pp. 213~220
DOI: 10.5532/KJAFM.2009.11.4.213
ⓒ Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License.


겨울기온 상승에 따른 복숭아 나무 ‘장호원황도’ 품종의
결과지에 대한 동상해위험 공간분석:
II. 휴면심도로 표현한 생리적 내동성에 근거한 동해위험지수

김진희(1), 김수옥(1), 정유란(1), 윤진일(1), 황규홍(2), 김정배(3), 윤익구(3)
(1)경희대학교 생태시스템공학과, (2)주식회사 에스티에이,
(3)농촌진흥청 국립원예특작과학원 과수과

(2009년 12월 01일 접수; 2009년 12월 14일 수정; 2009년 12월 14일 수락)

Geospatial Assessment of Frost and Freeze Risk in
‘Changhowon Hwangdo’ Peach (Prunus persica) Trees as
Affected by the Projected Winter Warming in South Korea:
II. Freezing Risk Index Based on Dormancy Depth as a Proxy
for Physiological Tolerance to Freezing Temperature

Jin-Hee Kim(1), Soo-Ock Kim(1), Uran Chung(1), Jin I. Yun(1), Kyu-Hong Hwang(2),
Jung-Bae Kim(3), Ik Koo Yoon(3)
(1)Department of Ecosystem Engineering, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 446-701, Korea
(2)STA Inc., Seoul 151-780, Korea
(3)Fruit Research Division, National Institute of Horticultural and Herbal Sciences, Suwon 440-706, Korea

(Received December 01, 2009; Revised December 14, 2009; Accepted December 14, 2009)

ABSTRACT
In order to predict the risk of freeze injury for ‘Changhowon Hwangdo’ peach trees, we used the dormancy depth (i.e., the daily chill unit accumulation during the overwintering period) as a proxy for the short-term, physiological tolerance to freezing temperatures. A Chill-days model was employed and its parameters such as base temperature and chilling requirement were optimized for peach trees based on the 12 observational experiments during the 2008-2009 winter. The model predicted the flowering dates much closer to the observations than other models without considering dormancy depth, showing the strength of employing dormancy depth into consideration. To derive empirical equations for calculating the probabilistic freeze risk, the dormancy depth was then combined with the browning ratio and the budburst ratio of frozen peach fruit branches. Given the exact date and the predicted minimum temperature, the equations calculate the probability of freeze damages such as a failure in budburst or tissue browning. This method of employing dormancy depth in addition to freezing temperature would be useful in locating in advance the risky areas of freezing injury for peach trees production under the projected climate change.

Keyword: Peach trees, Dormancy depth, Freezing risk, Chill-days model, Climate change

MAIN

적요

복숭아 나무 ‘장호원황도’ 품종의 결과지에 대한 월동기간 중 생리적 내한성을 가리키는 지표로서 일별기온에 의해 계산되는 휴면심도를 설정하였다. 휴면심도 추정모형의 최적모수(기준온도, 저온요구도)를 도출하기 위해 2008-2009 겨울 동안 총 12회에 걸친 실험을 수행한 결과, 내생휴면해제에 필요한 ‘장호원황도’의 기준온도 5.7oC와 저온요구도 -108을 얻었다. 1992-2008년 기간 중 수원기상대 일 최고 및 최저기온자료를 이용하여 이 모형에 의해 ‘장호원황도’의 만개기를 예측하고 기존의 DVS모형과 회귀모형에 의한 예상만개기와 비교한 결과 이 모형의 예측능력이 우수하였다. 이 모형에 의해 추정된 휴면심도를 선행연구에서 얻은 동해유발온도와 결합하여 동해위험확률을 계산할 수 있는 경험식을 도출하였다. 날짜와 최저기온이 주어지면 이 식에 의해 ‘장호원황도’의 갈변이나 발아장해 등 동해증상이 나타날 수 있는 확률, 즉 동해위험지수를 미리 알 수 있으므로 복숭아 재배농가의 동해경감에 기여할 것으로 기대된다.

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