한국농림기상학회지, 제 11권 제2호(2009) (pISSN 1229-5671, eISSN 2288-1859)
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 11, No. 2, (2009), pp. 61~71
DOI: 10.5532/KJAFM.2009.11.2.061
ⓒ Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License.


신고 배의 개화기 결정에 미치는 온도영향의 정량화
김수옥(1), 김진희(1), 정유란(1), 김승희(2), 박건환(3), 윤진일(1)
(1)경희대학교 생태시스템공학과, (2)국립원예특작과학원 과수과,
(3)경기도농업기술원 원예연구과

(2009년 06월 02일 접수; 2009년 06월 22일 수정; 2009년 06월 22일 수락)

Quantification of Temperature Effects on Flowering
Date Determination in Niitaka Pear
Soo-Ock Kim(1), Jin-Hee Kim(1), Uran Chung(1), Seung-Heui Kim(2),
Gun Hwan Park(3), Jin I. Yun(1)
(1)Department of Ecosystem Engineering, Kyung Hee University
(2)National Institute of Horticultural & Herbal Science
(3)Gyeonggi-do Agricultural Research & Extension Service

(Received June 02, 2009; Revised June 22, 2009; Accepted June 22, 2009)

ABSTRACT
Most deciduous trees in temperate zone are dormant during the winter to overcome cold and dry environment. Dormancy of deciduous fruit trees is usually separated into a period of rest by physiological conditions and a period of quiescence by unfavorable environmental conditions. Inconsistent and fewer budburst in pear orchards has been reported recently in South Korea and Japan and the insufficient chilling due to warmer winters is suspected to play a role. An accurate prediction of the flowering time under the climate change scenarios may be critical to the planning of adaptation strategy for the pear industry in the future. However, existing methods for the prediction of budburst depend on the spring temperature, neglecting potential effects of warmer winters on the rest release and subsequent budburst. We adapted a dormancy clock model which uses daily temperature data to calculate the thermal time for simulating winter phenology of deciduous trees and tested the feasibility of this model in predicting budburst and flowering of Niitaka pear, one of the favorite cultivars in Korea. In order to derive the model parameter values suitable for Niitaka, the mean time for the rest release was estimated by observing budburst of field collected twigs in a controlled environment. The thermal time (in chill-days) was calculated and accumulated by a predefined temperature range from fall harvest until the chilling requirement (maximum accumulated chill-days in a negative number) is met. The chilling requirement is then offset by anti-chill days (in positive numbers) until the accumulated chill-days become null, which is assumed to be the budburst date. Calculations were repeated with arbitrary threshold temperatures from 4oC to 10oC (at an interval of 0.1), and a set of threshold temperature and chilling requirement was selected when the estimated budburst date coincides with the field observation. A heating requirement (in accumulation of anti-chill days since budburst) for flowering was also determined from an experiment based on historical observations. The dormancy clock model optimized with the selected parameter values was used to predict flowering of Niitaka pear grown in Suwon for the recent 9 years. The predicted dates for full bloom were within the range of the observed dates with 1.9 days of root mean square error.

Keyword: Pear, Chilling requirement, Dormancy, Budburst, Full bloom, Phenology model

MAIN

적요

최근 우리나라의 춥지 않은 겨울은 온대낙엽과수의 휴면타파에 필요한 저온기간을 충분히 갖지 못하게 함으로서 개화시기를 앞당기거나 불균일하게 함으로써 수확량을 감소시키는 원인이 되고 있다. 기후변화시나리오에 의하면 이러한 피해가 앞으로 더욱 심해질 것으로 전망되므로 과수산업의 대응전략마련을 위해 정확한 개화기 예측이 필수적이다. 기존의 개화기 예측은 이른 봄부터 나타나는 기온의 영향만을 적용한 것으로써 겨울동안 눈의 휴면상태와 봄철 발아로 인한 개화시기의 변동은 반영할 수가 없었다. 본 연구는 휴면기간 동안 시간과 기온의 조합인 온도시간에 근거하여 내생휴면해제일, 발아, 개화를 예측할 수 있는 휴면시계모형을 배 품종 ‘신고’에 맞게 조정하고자 수행하였다. 매일의 기온자료만으로 내생휴면해제일을 찾아내기 위해 수확이 끝난 포장에서 매주 신고 가지를 채취하여 발아실험을 수행하였으며 포장에서 관측된 일 최고 및 최저기온을 이용하여 내생휴면해제일까지 온도시간을 계산하고 적산하였다. 기준온도를 4oC에서 10oC 범위로 설정하고 0.1oC 단위까지 세분화하여 휴면시계모형을 반복 구동함으로써 출력된 예상 발아기와 실측 발아기가 일치하는 조건에 해당하는 기준온도와 저온요구도를 도출하였다. 장기 생물계절 관측자료에 근거하여 발아 이후 개화에 이르는 기간의 온도시간을 계산하여 휴면시계모형에 추가함으로써 배 품종 신고의 만개기를 예측할 수 있도록 수정하였다. 이 모형에 의해 최근 9년간 개화기를 추정한 결과 RMSE가 1.9일로서 신고의 만개기 예측에 실용화 할 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.

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