한국농림기상학회지, 제 12권 제1호(2010) (pISSN 1229-5671, eISSN 2288-1859)
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 12, No. 1, (2010), pp. 11~22
DOI: 10.5532/KJAFM.2010.12.1.011
ⓒ Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License.


대기-해양-지면-해빙 접합 대순환 모형으로 모의된 이산화탄소
배증시 한반도 농업기후지수 변화 분석

안중배(1), 홍자영(1), 심교문(2)
(1)부산대학교 지구환경시스템학부, (2)국립농업과학원

(2009년 11월 18일 접수; 2010년 03월 26일 수정; 2010년 03월 26일 수락)

Agro-Climatic Indices Changes over the Korean Peninsula in CO2
Doubled Climate Induced by Atmosphere-Ocean-Land-Ice
Coupled General Circulation Model

Joong-Bae Ahn(1), Ja-Young Hong(1), Kyo-Moon Shim(2)
(1)Division of Earth Environmental System, Pusan National Univ., Jangjeon 2-dong, Geumjeong-gu, Busan, 609-735
(2)National Academy of Agricultural Science, RDA, Suwon, 441-707

(Received November 18, 2009; Revised March 26, 2010; Accepted March 26, 2010)

ABSTRACT
According to IPCC 4th Assessment Report, concentration of carbon dioxide has been increasing by 30% since Industrial Revolution. Most of IPCC CO2 emission scenarios estimate that the concentration will reach up to double of its present level within 100-year if the current tendency continues. The global warming has resulted in the agro-climate change over the Korean Peninsula as well. Accordingly, it is necessary to understand the future agro-climate induced by the increase of greenhouse gases in terms of the agro-climatic indices in the Korean peninsula. In this study, the future climate is simulated by an atmosphere/ocean/land surface/sea ice coupled general circulation climate model, Pusan National University Coupled General Circulation Model(hereafter, PNU CGCM), and by a regional weather prediction model, Weather Research and Forecasting Model(hereafter, WRF) for the purpose of a dynamical downscaling. The changes of the vegetable period and the crop growth period, defined as the total number of days of a year exceeding daily mean temperature of 5 and 10, respectively, have been analyzed. Our results estimate that the beginning date of vegetable and crop growth periods get earlier by 3.7 and 17 days, respectively, in spring under the CO2-doubled climate. In most of the Korean peninsula, the predicted frost days in spring decrease by 10 days. Climatic production index (CPI), which closely represent the productivity of rice, tends to increase in the double CO2 climate. Thus, it is suggested that the future CO2 doubled climate might be favorable for crops due to the decrease of frost days in spring, and increased temperature and insolation during the heading date as we expect from the increased CPI.

Keyword: Climate change, Carbon dioxide, Dynamical downscaling, Vegetable period index, Frost, Climatic production index

MAIN

적요

본 연구에서는 지구온난화에 따른 식물기간과 작물기간 등과 관련된 농업기후지수의 변화를 살펴보기 위하여 접합 대순환 모형인 PNU CGCM에 의해 모의된 CO2 배증 실험 결과를 지역기후 모형인 WRF에 two-way double nesting방법을 이용하여 역학적 규모 축소법을 적용 후, 그 결과를 분석하였다. 분석 기간은 배증 실험 시작 후 51년부터 55년까지 5년 동안의 3월~9월이다. 분석 결과 기온은 뚜렷하게 상승하는 모습을 볼 수 있었으며, 강수는 지역별로 차이를 보였으나 전반적으로 증가할 것으로 예상되었다. 상대습도와 토양온도도 증가하였으나 일사는 감소할 것으로 보인다. 풍속은 지역별로 큰 차이 없이 다소 상승할 것으로 모의되었다. 최저기온은 최고기온보다 상승폭이 커서 일교차는 줄어들 것으로 예상된다. 봄철 서리일 수는 감소하고, 마지막 서리일은 빨라질 것으로 나타난다. 일 평균기온이 5 이상인 일수는 3월에 가장 큰 증가가 있을 것으로 보이며, 식물온도의 평균 출현초일은 한반도 평균적으로 3.7일 정도 빨라지는 것을 알 수 있었다. 그리고 한반도 북부지역보다 남부지역에서 출현초일이 앞당겨질 것으로 예상된다. 일 평균 기온이 10 이상 출현지속 기간인 작물온도의 평균 출현초일은 평균적으로 17일 빨라질 것으로 보이며 지역적으로 분석하였을 때, 강원도 산맥지역에서는 작물온도의 출현초일에 큰 변화가 없을 것으로 예상된다. 그리고 기후생산력 지수는 출수 후 40일간의 평균 일조시간과 기온의 상승으로 인해 증가할 것으로 예상된다. 따라서 CO2 배증에 의해 변화된 한반도 기후는 식물 및 작물의 생장과 벼 생장에 좋은 영향을 미칠 것으로 예상된다. 따라서 지구 온난화에 따라 예상되는 한반도 기후변화에 적합한 작부체계의 개선이 향후 필요할 것으로 생각된다. 그리고 본 연구는 하나의 시나리오를 적용한 결과이므로 보다 다양한 시나리오를 적용하 여 그에 따른 농업기후지수 변화를 살펴보는 연구가 필요하다.

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