한국농림기상학회지, 제 13권 제3호(2011) (pISSN 1229-5671, eISSN 2288-1859)
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 13, No. 3, (2011), pp. 148~156
DOI: 10.5532/KJAFM.2011.13.3.148
ⓒ Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License.


2000~2008년 봄철 황사와 산불발생의 관계 분석

원명수(1), 윤석희(1), 이우균(2)
(1)국립산림과학원 산림방재연구과, (2)고려대학교 환경생태공학과

(2011년 03월 18일 접수; 2011년 08월 16일 수정; 2011년 09월 30일 수락)

A Study on the Correlation between Forest Fire Occurrence and
Asian Dust during the Spring Season from 2000 to 2008

Myoung Soo Won(1), Suk Hee Yoon(1), Woo Kyun Lee(2)
(1)Division of Forest Disaster Management, Korea Forest Research Institute, 57, Hoegiro,
Dongdaemun-gu, Seoul 130-712, Korea
(2)Faculty of Environmental Science and Ecological Engineering, Korea University-Seoul, 1
Anam-dong 5-ga, Sungbuk-gu, Seoul, 136-701, Korea

(Received March 18, 2011; Revised August 16, 2011; Accepted September 30, 2011)

ABSTRACT
The purpose of this study is to analyze the patterns of forest fire possibly related with Asian dust event and carry out a correlation analysis between forest fire occurrence and existence or not of the Asian dust event during dry seasons i.e. February to May in 2000 to 2008. To study the correlation of forest fire and Asian dust, we surveyed information of Asian dust observations, forest fire statistics, fire danger rating index, weather data such as temperature, relative humidity and wind speed of the day occurring the forest fire. As a consequence of analysis, the regional frequency of Asian dust was the highest in Gyeonggi and Chungbuk divisions. Frequencies of forest fire occurrence by the Asian dust events were the highest in the day before three days of the Asian dust event. The highest frequent regions of forest fire occurrence were district of boundary line between Gyeonggi and Western of Gangwon, Chungbuk and Gyeonbuk inland. The correlation between forest fire and fire danger rating index showed the high correlation with the day before three days and after three days of the Asian dust event. These correlation coefficients were 0.50038 and 0.53978 to 1% significance level. The result of analysis between the frequency of forest fire occurrence and wind speed had a highly negative relationship at all the Asian dust days, the day before and after three days. The correlation coefficients had been -0.58623 to -0.61245 to 1% significance level. Relative humidity showed a little of negative relationship with forest fire occurrence in -0.2568(p ≤ 0.01) for the Asian dust day and -0.35309(p ≤ 0.01) for next three days. Moreover, at the day before three days of Asian dust events, it was -0.23701 to 1% significance level. However, the mean temperature did not correlate with frequency of forest fire occurrence by Asian dust events at all.

Keyword: Forest fire, Asian dust, Fire danger rating index, Wind speed, Relative humidity, Temperature

MAIN

적요

산불발생 위험성이 높은 봄철(2~5월)을 대상으로 2000년부터 2008년까지의 한반도 황사 관측 유무에 따른 산불발생과의 상관관계를 알아보고 황사로 인한 산불발생 패턴을 파악하기 위하여 9개의 황사 영향권역을 설정한 후 황사가 관측된 날과 황사가 관측되지 않았던 전·후 3일에 대한 지역별 자료를 ArcGIS 9.2에서 1km×1km 공간 해상도로 거리역산가중(IDW)분석을 실시하였다. 그리고 산불발화지 인근 기상관측소의 기온, 상대습도, 풍속 자료는 황사가 있던 날과 없던 전·후 3일에 대한 산불발생패턴을 파악하고 황사와 산불발생위험의 상관분석을 실시하였다. 2000~2008년 황사 관측은 3월에 36회, 4월에 30회 순으로 발생하였고, 권역별로는 황사빈도가 경기와 충북 권역에서 가장 높게 나타났다. 황사관측 유무에 따른 지역별 산불발생빈도는 황사 3일 전이 가장 높게 나타났으며, 경기와 강원 영서 권역이 경계한 인접지역과 충청 및 경북 내륙에서 가장 높게 나타났다. 반대로 경남 권역은 2건 이하로 가장 낮은 산불발생빈도를 보였다. 황사관측 유무에 따른 산불발생과 위험지수의 상관관계는 황사 전·후 3일에만 상관계수(R2)가 0.50038과 0.53978로 1% 유의수준에서 상관하는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 황사가 관측된 날에는 서로 상관하지 않는 것으로 나타났다. 산불발생빈도와 기상과의 관계를 분석한 결과는 황사관측 유무 모두에서 풍속이 산불발생과 1% 유의수준에 -0.58623 ~ -0.61245로 상관이 높은 것으로 나타났다. 또한 상대습도는 황사관측 일과 3일 후에 -0.2568, -0.35309(p≤0.01)로 유의한 것으로 나타났으며, 황사3일 전은 -0.23701(p≤0.05)의 상관을 보였다. 그러나 평균기온은 황사관측 유무에 따라 산불발생이 전혀 상관하지 않았다. 따라서 우리나라 산불의 대부분은 인위적으로 발생하기 때문에 지역별로 황사 관측 유무에 따라 야외활동의 증감이 산불발생에 영향을 주는 것으로 판단되며, 기상 요소 중에서 평균풍속은 황사 관측과 무관하게 산불발생에 가장 큰 영향을 주었다.

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