Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 13, No. 1, (2011), pp. 10~19
ⓒ Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License.
살포에 미치는 영향
(2011년 02월 15일 접수; 2011년 02월 25일 수정; 2011년 03월 11일 수락)
on Hot Pepper in Korea During 2011-2100
(Received February 15, 2011; Revised February 25, 2011; Accepted March 11, 2011)
In order to predict the risk of anthracnose on hot pepper in the future, the projected climate data from SRES A1B scenario in South Korea were used with the modified anthracnose model to calculate Infection Risk (IR), which was to estimate the number of fungicide sprays. Based on daily temperature and precipitation, the anthracnose model resulted in an empirical relationship that IR = (Daily temperature – 16oC) X 0.07 + (Daily precipitation X 0.11). For 135 locations in South Korea, the total number of fungicide sprays needed from 2011 to 2100 was 12,150, indicating a complicated change with an overall increase in anthracnose development in all locations until 2100. In particular, radical changes in anthracnose development were predicted at Yeongdeok, Yeongyang, and Uiseong, whereas gradual changes were predicted at Heongsung, Hamyang and Taean. The eastern counties of Gyeongbuk Province, which ar the major plantation area in these days, would be the place with the highest disease pressure in the future. In addition, the years of 2058, 61, 78 and 2096 will be most severe, requiring 8-11 times of fungicide spraying. The GIS maps show that the mountain areas of Jeonbuk and Chungbuk Province would have the least disease pressure of anthracnose in the future.
미래 고추탄저병 위험도를 예측하기 위해 남한 지역에서 A1B 시나리오 온실가스 배출에 따라 예측된 일별 기온과 강우량 자료를 국립기상연구소에서 제공받아 고추 탄저병 예찰 모형에 대입하여 감염위험도(IR)을 추정하였다. 감염위험도는 탄저병 방제 횟수를 추정하는 것으로써 일평균 온도와 강우량을 기초로 감염위험도 추정식을 만들었다. 이 추정식(IR=(일평균기온-16oC) × 0.07 + (일별강우량 × 0.11))을 활용하여 우리나라 135지역에서 2011년부터 2100년까지 총 12,150의 탄저병 권장 방제 횟수 자료를 얻었다. 각 지역별로 135개의 회귀분석 결과 우리나라 전 지역에서 향후 탄저병 발병은 증가 추세라는 것이 확인되었다. 상대적으로 탄저병 발병이 급증하리라 예측되는 지역은 경북의 영덕, 영양, 의성 등이었고, 반면 발병 증가가 완만하리라 기대되는 곳은 강원 횡성, 경남 함양 그리고 충남 태안 등이었다. 현재 고추 주산지인 경북 동부지역은 미래 탄저병 발병압이 심각하게 증가되리라 예측되었다. 전 지역에 걸쳐 탄저병 방제 살포 횟수는 2058, 2061, 2078 그리고 2096년에는 대단히 심각하여 방제 경보가 매년 8-11회에 달하리라 예측되었다. GIS 지도로 탄저병 발병 정도를 비교한 결과 충북과 전북의 산간 지역은 상대적으로 탄저병 발병압이 낮아 향후 재배적지로 판단된다.
Ahn, M. I., W. S. Kang, E. W. Park, and S. C. Yun, 2008:Validation of an anthracnose forecaster to schedulefungicide spraying for pepper. Plant Pathology Journal24, 46-51.
Chung, U., and J. I. Yun, 2008: A prospect on the changesin short-term cold hardiness in “campbell early” grapevineunder the future warmer winter in South Korea. KoreanJournal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10, 94-101. (In Korean with English abstract)
Eccel, E., R. Rea, A. Caffarra, and A. Crisci, 2009: Risk ofspring frost to apple production under future climatescenarios: the role of phenological acclimation. InternationalJournal of Biometeorology 53, 273-286.
Hibberd, J. M., P. Richardson, R. Whitbread, and J. F. Farrar,1996a: Effects of leaf age, basal meristem and infectionwith powdery mildew on photosynthesis in barley grownin
Hibberd, J. M., R. Whitbread, and J. F. Farrar, 1996b:Effect of elevated concentrations of
Jacobs, J. N., G. Jacobs, and N. C. Cook, 2002: Chilling period influences the progression of bud dormancy morethan does chilling temperature in apple and pear shoots.Journal of Horticultural Science and Biotechnology 77,333-339.
Kang, W. S., S. C. Yun, and E. W. Park, 2010: Nonlinearregression analysis to determine infection models ofColletotrichum acutatum causing anthracnose of chilipepper using logistic equation. Plant Pathology Journal26, 17-24.
Kim, C. S., J. S. Lee, J. Y. Ko, E. S. Yun, U. S. Yeo, J. H.Lee, D. Y. Kwak, M. S. Shin, and B. G. Oh, 2007:Evaluation of optimum rice heading period under recentclimatic change in Yeongnam area. Korean Journal ofAgricultural and Forest Meteorology 9, 17-28. (InKorean with English abstract)
Kim, J. H., S. O. Kim, U. Chung, J. I. Yun, K. H. Hwang,J. B. Kim, and I. K. Yoon, 2009a: Geospatial assessmentof frost and freeze risk in ‘Changhowon Hwangdo’peach (Prunus persica) trees as affected by the projectedwinter warming in South Korea: II. Freezing risk indexbased on dormancy depth as a proxy for physiologicaltolerance to freezing temperature. Korean Journal ofAgricultural and Forest Meteorology 11, 213-220. (InKorean with English abstract)
Kim, S. O., U. Chung, S. H. Kim, I. M. Choi, and J. I. Yun,2009b: The suitable region and site for ‘Fuji’ appleunder the projected climate in South Korea. KoreanJournal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 11, 162-173. (In Korean with English abstract)
Kim, S. T., M. I. Ahn, and S. C. Yun, 2010: Evaluation ofanthracnose forecaster of an integrated pest managementsystem on hot pepper in the fields. Research in PlantDisease 16, 66-73.
Kwon, Y. A., W. T. Kwon, and K. O. Boo, 2007: Futureprojections on the change of onset data and duration ofnatural seasons using SRES A1B data in South Korea.Journal of the Korean Geographical Society 42, 835-850. (In Korean with English abstract)
Lee, S. H., I. H. Heo, K. M. Lee, S. Y. Kim, Y. S. Lee, andW. T. Kwon, 2008: Impact of climate change on phenologyand growth of crops: In the case of Naju. Journal of theKorean Geographical Society 43, 20-35. (In Koreanwith English abstract)
Mouseau, M., and B. Saugier, 1992: The direct effect ofincreased
Myung, I. S., S. K. Hong, Y. K. Lee, H. W. Choi, H. S.Shim, J. W. Park, K. S. Park, S. Y. Lee, S. D. Lee, S. H.Lee, H. S. Choi, Y. K. Kim, D. B. Shin, D. S. Ra, W. H.Yeh, S. S. Han, and W. D. Cho, 2006: Review of diseaseincidence of major crops of the South Korea in 2005.Research in Plant Disease 12, 153-157. (In Korean withEnglish abstract)
Nam, M. H., J. Y. Song, and H. G. Kim, 2004: Overwinter and survival of Colletotrichum gloeosporioides and Glomerellacingulata in soil and plant debris of strawberry. Researchin Plant Disease 10, 198-202. (In Korean with Englishabstract)
Seo, H. C., S. K. Kim, Y. S. Lee, and Y. C. Cho, 2006:Geographical shift of quality soybean production area innorthern Gyeonggi province by year 2100. KoreanJournal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 8, 242-249. (In Korean with English abstract)
Shim, K. M., G. Y. Kim, K. A. Roh, H. C. Jeong, and D. B.Lee, 2008: Evaluation of agro-climate indices underclimate change. Korean Journal of Agricultural andForest Meteorology 10, 113-120. (In Korean with Englishabstract)
Shin, J. W., and S. C. Yun, 2010: Elevated
Yun, J. I., 2006: Climate change impact on the flowering seasonof Japanese cherry (Prunus serrulata var. spontanea) inKorea during 1941-2100. Korean Journal of Agriculturaland Forest Meteorology 8, 68-76. (In Korean withEnglish abstract)