한국농림기상학회지, 제 14권 제4호(2012) (pISSN 1229-5671, eISSN 2288-1859)
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 14, No. 4, (2012), pp. 265~268
DOI: 10.5532/KJAFM.2012.14.4.265
ⓒ Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License.


알레르기 꽃가루 위험도 예보모델의 개발과 검증

김규랑(1), 박기준(2), 이혜림(1), 김미진(1), 최영진(1), 오재원(3)
(1)국립기상연구소 응용기상연구과, (2)국립기상연구소 정책연구과, (3)한양대학교 의과대학

(2012년 11월 29일 접수; 2012년 12월 07일 수정; 2012년 12월 07일 수락)

Development and Evaluation of the Forecast Models
for Daily Pollen Allergy

Kyu Rang Kim(1), Ki-Jun Park(2), Hye-Rim Lee(1), Mijin Kim(1),
Young-Jean Choi(1), Jae-Won Oh(3)
(1)Applied Meteorology Research Laboratory, National Institute of Meteorological Research, Seoul, Korea
(2)Policy Research Laboratory, National Institute of Meteorological Research, Seoul, Korea
(3)College of Medicine, Hanyang University, Seoul, Korea

(Received November 29, 2012; Revised December 07, 2012; Accepted December 07, 2012)

ABSTRACT
There are increasing number of allergic patients due to the increasing outdoor activities and allergenic pollens by local climate changes. Korea Meteorological Administration provides daily forecasts for pollen allergy warnings on the Internet. The forecast models are composed of pollen concentration models and risk grade levels. The accuracy of the models was determined in terms of risk grade. Pollen concentration models were developed using the observed data during from 2001 to 2006 and accuracy was validated against the data during from 2010 to 2011. The accuracy was different from location to location. The accuracy for most tree species was higher in April than that in May. The accuracy for weed species was higher in October than in September. Our result suggest that the models presented in this study can be used to estimate daily number and risk grade of pollens.

Keyword: Pollen concentration, Meteorological conditions, Forecast model, Risk grade

MAIN

적요

실외활동의 증가와 기후변화에 의한 알레르기 유발 꽃가루의 증가로 알레르기 질환 환자가 급증하고 있다. 현재 기상청에서는 홈페이지를 통하여 일별 꽃가루 농도 위험지수를 예보하고 있다. 예보모델은 농도 추정 모델과 알레르기 위험도로 구성되어 있으며, 예보모델의 위험도 예측 정확도를 검증하였다. 꽃가루 농도모델은 2001~2006년 자료를 이용하여 개발하였고, 정확도는 2010~2011년 자료로 검증하였다. 수목류 정확도는 지역별로 다르게 나타났으나 5월보다 4월에 높게 나타났다. 잡초류는 9월보다 10월에 더 높게 나타났다. 본 연구 결과를 통해 기상자료를 이용한 일별 꽃가루 수와 위험도를 추정할 수 있으며, 이를 이용하여 생명기상 또는 보건기상 분야의 심층 연구가 수행될 수 있을 것이다.

REFERENCES

Kim, J. H., H. B. Lee, J. W. Oh, S. W. Kim, I. J. Kang, M. H. Kook, B. S. Kim, K. S. Park, H. S. Baek, K. R. Kim, and Y. J. Choi, 2012: Changes in sensitization rate to weed allergens in children with increased weeds pollen counts in Seoul metropolitan area. Journal of Korean Medical Science 27(4), 350-355.

National Institute of Meteorological Research, 2008: Development of forecasting models for pollen allergenicity. Advanced Research on Industrial Meteorology (I). National Institute of Meteorological Research, Seoul 352pp. (in Korean with English abstract)

Oh, J. W., H. B. Lee, I. J. Kang, S. W. Kim, K. S. Park, M. H. Kook, B. S. Kim, H. S. Baek, J. H. Kim, J. K. Kim, D. J. Lee, K. R. Kim, and Y. J. Choi, 2012: The revised edition of Korean calendar for allergenic pollens. Allergy Asthma Immunology Research 4, 5-11.crossref(new window)

Park, K. J., H. A. Kim, K. R. Kim, J. W. Oh, S. Y. Lee, and Y. J. Choi 2008: Characteristics of regional distribution of pollen concentration in Korean peninsula. Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology 10(4), 167-176. (in Korean with English abstract)crossref(new window)