한국농림기상학회지, 제 14권 제4호(2012) (pISSN 1229-5671, eISSN 2288-1859)
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 14, No. 4, (2012), pp. 161~169
DOI: 10.5532/KJAFM.2012.14.4.161
ⓒ Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License.


신 기후변화시나리오에 따른 한반도 내 겨울보리 재배적지 이동

김대준(1), 김진희(2), 노재환(3), 윤진일(1)
(1)경희대학교 생태시스템공학과, (2)(재)국가농림기상센터, (3)국립식량과학원 벼맥류부

(2012년 09월 24일 접수; 2012년 11월 06일 수정; 2012년 11월 06일 수락)

Geographical Migration of Winter Barley in the
Korean Peninsula under the RCP8.5 Projected Climate Condition

Dae-jun Kim(1), Jin-hee Kim(2), Jae-hwan Roh(3), Jin I. Yun(1)
(1)College of Life Science, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 446-701, Korea
(2)National Center for Agro-Meteolorogy, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-742, Korea
(3)Rice Research Division, National Institute of Crop Science, Iksan 570-080, Korea

(Received September 24, 2012; Revised November 06, 2012; Accepted November 06, 2012)

ABSTRACT
The RCP 8.5 scenario based temperature outlook (12.5 km resolution) was combined with high-definition gridded temperature maps (30 m grid spacing) across the Korean Peninsula in order to reclassify the cold hardiness zone for winter barley, a promising grain crop in the future under warmer winter conditions. Reference maps for the January minimum and mean temperature were prepared by applying the watershed-specific geospatial climate prediction schemes to the synoptic observations from 1981 to 2010 across North and South Korea. Decadal changes in the January minimum and mean temperatures projected by a regional version of RCP8.5 climate change scenario were prepared for the 2011-2100 period at 12.5 km grid spacing and were subsequently added to the reference maps, producing the 30 m resolution temperature surfaces for 9 decades from 2011 to 2100. A criterion for threshold temperature to grow winter barley safely in Korea was applied to the future temperature surfaces and the resulting maps were used to predict the production potential of 3 cultivar groups for the 9 future decades under the projected temperature conditions. By 2020s, hulled barley cultivars could be grown safely at the southern part of North Korea as well as the mountainous Gangwon province. Furthermore, most of South Korean rice paddies will be safe for growing naked barley after harvesting rice. Also, dual cropping systems such as ‘winter-barley after rice’ could be possible at most of the North Korean rice paddies by 2040s. Additional grain production in North Korea could increase up to 4 million tons per year if dual cropping systems can be fully operated, i.e., winter barley after rice at all lowlands and winter barley after maize or potato at all uplands.

Keyword: RCP 8.5, Winter barley, Cold hardiness zone, North Korea

MAIN

적요

변화된 미래 기후조건에서 한반도의 식량수급전망에 긍정적 변수로 떠오르고 있는 가을보리의 안전재배지대 재설정 및 잠재 생산량 추정을 위해 한반도 지역 RCP8.5 기반 미래 기온전망을 현재 평년의 상세 전자기후도와 결합하여 2011-2100 기간 중 보리 품종군별 재배안전지대의 지리적 변화를 10년 단위로 예측하였다. 먼저 1971-2000 기간 중 1월 최저기온과 평균기온 분포도를 30m 격자 해상도로 남북한 전역에 걸쳐 준비하고, 이 기준 기온분포도 위에 기상청의 RCP8.5 기반 한반도 12.5km 시나리오 기후자료에서 산출한 기준평년 기점의 10년 단위 기온상승폭을 중첩시켰다. 2100년까지 매 10년 단위 1월의 최저기온과 평균기온의 예상분포도상에 농촌진흥청에서 제시한 보리 추파재배 시 품종군별 안전월동기준에 따라 재배안전지대를 표현한 결과, 2020년대에는 강원도와 북한 남부 대부분 지역에서 겉보리 재배가 가능해지며 남한 전역에서는 쌀보리 재배가 가능해질 것이고, 2040년대에는 북한 평야지대 거의 모든 벼논에서 쌀보리 이모작이 가능해질 것으로 예상되었다. 현재 파악되고 있는 북한의 경지면적은 160만 ha 인데, 2040년대 이후 북한지방의 논에는 벼 수확 후 쌀보리를, 밭에는 옥수수, 감자 후작으로 겉보리를 재배한다면 연간 최대 400만 톤의 식량을 추가로 확보할 수 있을 것이다.

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