한국농림기상학회지, 제 14권 제1호(2012) (pISSN 1229-5671, eISSN 2288-1859)
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 14, No. 1, (2012), pp. 11~18
DOI: 10.5532/KJAFM.2012.14.1.011
ⓒ Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License.


식물계절모형 입력자료로서 확률추정 기상자료의 이용 가능성

김대준(1), 정유란(1), 윤진일(2)
(1)(재)국가농림기상센터, (2)경희대학교 식물환경신소재공학과

(2012년 02월 26일 접수; 2012년 03월 26일 수정; 2012년 03월 26일 수락)

Feasibility of Stochastic Weather Data as an Input to
Plant Phenology Models

Dae-jun Kim(1), Uran Chung(1), Jin I. Yun(2)
(1)National Center for Agro-Meteorology, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-742, Korea
(2)Department of Ecosystem Engineering, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 446-701, Korea

(Received February 26, 2012; Revised March 26, 2012; Accepted March 26, 2012)

ABSTRACT
Daily temperature data produced by harmonic analysis of monthly climate summary have been used as an input to plant phenology model. This study was carried out to evaluate the performance of the harmonic based daily temperature data in prediction of major phenological developments and to apply the results in improving decision support for agricultural production in relation to the climate change scenarios. Daily maximum and minimum temperature data for a climatological normal year (Jan. 1 to Dec. 31, 1971-2000) were produced by harmonic analysis of the monthly climate means for Seoul weather station. The data were used as inputs to a thermal time – based phenology model to predict dormancy, budburst, and flowering of Japanese cherry in Seoul. Daily temperature measurements at Seoul station from 1971 to 2000 were used to run the same model and the results were compared with the harmonic data case. Leaving no information on annual variation aside, the harmonic based simulation showed 25 days earlier release from endodormancy, 57 days longer period for maximum cold tolerance, delayed budburst and flowering by 14 and 13 days, respectively, compared with the simulation based on the observed data. As an alternative to the harmonic data, 30 years daily temperature data were generated by a stochastic process (SIMMETEO + WGEN) using climatic summary of Seoul station for 1971-2000. When these data were used to simulate major phenology of Japanese cherry for 30 years, deviations from the results using observed data were much less than the harmonic data case: 6 days earlier dormancy release, 10 days reduction in maximum cold tolerance period, only 3 and 2 days delay in budburst and flowering, respectively. Inter-annual variation in phenological developments was also in accordance with the observed data. If stochastically generated temperature data could be used in agroclimatic mapping and zoning, more reliable and practical aids will be available to climate change adaptation policy or decision makers.

Keyword: Plant phenology, Weather generator, Harmonic analysis, Cherry blossom, Bud dormancy

MAIN

적요

월별 기후통계량의 조화해석에 의해 생성한 일 기온자료가 생물계절모형의 입력자료로서 적합한지 여부를 평가하여 농림업 부문 기후시나리오 응용정보 제작 상 오류를 제거하기 위해 본 연구를 수행하였다. 서울관측소의 1971-2000 평년 월별 일 최고기온과 최저기온 평균값으로부터 조화해석에 의해 365일 간 기온자료를 생성하였다. 이것을 널리 검증된 온도시간 기반의 벚꽃개화모형에 입력하여 휴면, 발아, 개화 등 주요 식물계절을 추정하였다. 같은 기간 중 실측기온자료에 의해 모형을 구동시켜 얻은 결과와 비교한 바, 연차변이를 전혀 반영하지 못하는 것은 물론, 휴면해제 25일 단축, 강제 휴면기간 57일 연장, 발아 14일 지연, 개화 13일 지연 등 평균값도 크게 달라 식물계절을 크게 왜곡시키는 것으로 판단되었다. 대안으로서 확률추정기법에 의해 일기상자료를 생성하고 이를 이용하여 모형을 구동한 결과 실측결과에 비해 휴면해제 6일 단축, 강제휴면기간 10일 단축, 발아 3일 지연, 개화 2일 지연 등으로 조화해석자료 사용에 비해 크게 개선되었음을 확인하였다. 연차변이양상 역시 실측기온에 의한 모의결과와 크게 다르지 않아, 향후 이 자료를 농업부문 전자기후도 제작에 적용하면 기후변화 적응정책 수립을 실용수준에서 지원할 수 있을 것으로 보인다.

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