한국농림기상학회지, 제 15권 제4호(2013) (pISSN 1229-5671, eISSN 2288-1859)
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 15, No. 4, (2013), pp. 312~319
DOI: 10.5532/KJAFM.2013.15.4.312
ⓒ Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License.


기온, 강수량, 이산화탄소농도 변화에 따른 CERES-Barley
국내품종의 종실수량 반응

김대준(1), 노재환(2), 윤진일(1)
(1)경희대학교 식물환경신소재공학과, (2)국립식량과학원 벼맥류부

(2013년 12월 17일 접수; 2013년 12월 22일 수정; 2013년 12월 26일 수락)

Grain Yield Response of CERES-Barley Adjusted for Domestic
Cultivars to the Simultaneous Changes in Temperature,
Precipitation, and CO2 Concentration

Dae-jun Kim(1), Jae-hwan Roh(2), Jin I. Yun(1)
(1)College of Life Science, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 446-701, Korea
(2)Rice Research Division, National Institute of Crop Science, Iksan 570-080, Korea

(Received December 17, 2013; Revised December 22, 2013; Accepted December 26, 2013)

ABSTRACT
Our understanding of the sensitivities of crop responses to changes in carbon dioxide, temperature, and water is limited, which makes it difficult to fully utilize crop models in assessing the impact of climate change on future agricultural production. Genetic coefficients of CERES-Barley model for major domestic cultivars in South Korea (Olbori at Suwon, Albori at Milyang, Saessalbori at Iksan, and Samdobori at Jinju) were estimated from the observed data for daily weather and field trials for more than 10 years by using GenCalc in DSSAT. Data from 1997-2002 annual crop status report (Rural Development Administration, RDA) were used to validate the crop coefficients. The sitecalibrated CERES-Barley model was used to perform crop growth simulation with the 99 treatments of step change combinations in temperature, precipitation and carbon dioxide concentration with respect to the baseline climate (1981-2010) at four sites. The upper boundary corresponds to the 2071-2100 climate outlook from the RCP 8.5 scenario. The response surface of grain yield showed a distinct pattern of model behavior under the combined change in environmental variables. The simulated grain yield was most sensitive to CO2 concentration, least sensitive to precipitation, and showing a variable response to temperature depending on cultivar. The emulated impacts of response surfaces are expected to facilitate assessment of projected climate impacts on a given cultivar in South Korea.

Keyword: CERES, RCP 8.5, Response surface, Sensitivity, Winter Barley

MAIN

적요

주어진 작물모형이 기후요소 중 어떤 것에 얼마만큼 반응하는지 상대적인 민감도를 모르는 상태에서 계산 결과만으로 미래 전망을 내리는 것은 적절치 않을 수 있다. 본 연구에서는 미래기후전망에 근거한 국내 보리 품종의 민감도 변화 실험을 통해 기온, 강수량, 이산화탄소 농도의 변화가 작물의 생산량에 미치는 상대적인 영향을 분석하였다. 주요 보리 품종(올보리-수원,알보리-밀양, 새쌀보리-익산, 삼도보리-진주)에 맞게 품종모수가 조정된 CERES-Barley를 RCP 8.5 시나리오의 2071-2100 기후변동범위(1981-2010 기준 기온 -1oC~+8oC, 강수량 -50% ~ +50%, CO2 농도 330ppm~ 900ppm)에 근거한 99개 처리조합에 의해 구동하였다. 이들 처리조합에 의해 생성된 11,880개 종실수량 계산결과를 토대로 각 기후요소의 변화에 따른 종실수 량의 민감도를 분석한 결과 이산화탄소농도 변화에 가장 민감한 반응을 보인 반면 강수량 변동에 대한 반응이 가장 무디었고, 온도변화에 대해서는 기준온도대비 상승, 하강 모두 감소하는 경향이었지만 품종 별로 차이가 뚜렷하였다. CERES-Barley는 우리나라에서 농업부문 기후변화 영향평가에 널리 사용되므로 실험 설계 시 이러한 모형의 민감도를 감안하여야 현실성 있는 생육모의가 가능하다.

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