한국농림기상학회지, 제 15권 제3호(2013) (pISSN 1229-5671, eISSN 2288-1859)
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 15, No. 3, (2013), pp. 178~185
DOI: 10.5532/KJAFM.2013.15.3.178
ⓒ Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License.

산불확산에 영향을 미치는 생태학적 요소들간의 민감도 분석:
시뮬레이션 연구

송학수, 이상희

(2013년 08월 28일 접수; 2013년 09월 18일 수정; 2013년 09월 23일 수락)

Sensitivity Analysis on Ecological Factors Affecting
Forest Fire Spreading: Simulation Study

Hark-Soo Song, Sang-Hee Lee
KT Daeduk 2 Research Center, 70 Yuseong-daero 1689-gil, Yuseong-gu, Daejeon 305-811, Korea

(Received August 28, 2013; Revised September 18, 2013; Accepted September 23, 2013)

Forest fires are expected to increase in severity and frequency under global climate change and thus better understanding of fire dynamics is critical for mitigation and adaptation. Researchers with different background, such as ecologists, physicists, and mathematical biologists, have developed various simulation models to reproduce forest fire spread dynamics. However, these models have limitations in the fire spreading because of the complicated factors such as fuel types, wind, and moisture. In this study, we suggested a simple model considering the wind effect and two different fuel types. The two fuels correspond to susceptible tree and resistant tree with different probabilities of transferring fire. The trees were randomly distributed in simulation space with a density ranging from 0.0 (low) to 1.0 (high). The susceptible tree had higher value of the probability than the resistant tree. Based on the number of burnt trees, we then carried out the sensitivity analysis to quantify how the forest fire patterns are affected by wind and tree density. The statistical analysis showed that the total tree density had greatest effect on the forest fire spreading and wind had the next greatest effect. The density of the susceptible tree was relatively lower factor affecting the forest fire. We believe that our model can be a useful tool to explore forest fire spreading patterns.

Keyword: Forest fire model, Fire spreading dynamics, Forest ecosystem, Sensitivity analysis



산불은 대표적인 산림생태계의 재해 중 하나로 최근, 우리나라에서도 빈번하게 발생하고 있으며, 일반적으로 광범위한 지역에 빠른 속도로 확산되는 특징을 가지고 있다. 바람 및 나무의 종류, 다양한 지형 요소들이 산불 발생 시 급진적 확산에 영향을 주는 요소들이다. 산불의 빠른 확산은 생태계 교란 및 재산 피해, 인명 피해 등을 야기 시킨다. 이러한 이유로, 최근 산불에 관련된 연구가 활발하게 진행되고 있다. 본 연구에서는 바람 요인이 고려된 산불 패턴 가상 시뮬레이션 단순 모델을 제안하였고, 셀룰라오토마타(CellularAutomata)의 격자 기반으로 구성 되었다. 모델의 시뮬레이션을 통하여, 바람의 세기 변화, 주어진 공간에 분포해 있는 나무 전체의 밀도, 그리고, 나무들 가운데 가연성이 높은 나무의 밀도가 산불확산에 미치는 영향을 조사하였다. 민감도 분석 결과, 전체 나무 밀도가 세 가지 요소 중 산불확산에 가장 민감하게 기여하였으며, 그 다음으로는 바람의 영향, 마지막으로 가연성이 높은 나무의 밀도 순으로 나타났다. 본 연구에서 제안한 산불확산 시뮬레이션 모델 및 분석결과는 실제 산불 확산 및 억제 전략 수립에 활용되어 질 수 있을 것으로 여겨지며, 아울러 좀 더 현실적인 생태학적 요소들을 모델에 고려함으로써 산불확산 예측 연구에도 이용되어 질 수 있을 것으로 판단된다.


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