한국농림기상학회지, 제 15권 제3호(2013) (pISSN 1229-5671, eISSN 2288-1859)
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 15, No. 3, (2013), pp. 119~129
DOI: 10.5532/KJAFM.2013.15.3.119
ⓒ Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License.


기후변화에 따른 생태권역별·임상별 산림 바이오매스 변화량 예측

신진영(1), 원명수(2), 김경하(2), 신만용(1)
(1)국민대학교 산림환경시스템학과, (2)국립산림과학원 산림방재연구과

(2013년 06월 10일 접수; 2013년 07월 03일 수정; 2013년 07월 09일 수락)

Predicting the Effect of Climate Change on Forest Biomass by
Different Ecoprovinces and Forest Types in Korea

Jin Young Shin(1), Myoung Soo Won(2), Kyongha Kim(2), Man Yong Shin(1)
(1)Department of Forest, Environment, and System, Kookmin University, Seoul 130-702, Korea
(2)Division of Forest Disaster Management, Korea Forest Research Institute, dongdaemun-gu, South Korea

(Received June 10, 2013; Revised July 03, 2013; Accepted July 09, 2013)

ABSTRACT
This study was conducted to predict the changes in forest biomass in different ecoprovinces and forest types under climate change scenario based on cumulative data (i.e., digital forest site and climate maps, National Forest Inventory data) and various prediction models. The results from this study showed that predicted changes over time in biomass varied according to ecoprovince and forest type in Korea. A reduction in biomass was predicted for all forest types associated with the mountain, southeastern hilly, and southwestern hilly ecoprovinces. On the other hand, the biomass was predicted to increase for the coniferous forest and mixed-forest types in the central hilly ecoprovince. Furthermore, increases in biomass are predicted for all forest types, except coniferous forests, in the coastal ecoprovince. The results from this study provide a basis for developing technology to predict forest impacts due to climate change by predicting changes in forest biomass based on the estimation of site index.

Keyword: Climate change scenario, Forest biomass, Ecoprovince, Site quality, National forest inventory

MAIN

적요

본 연구는 수치산림입지도, 수치기후도, 제5차 국가산림자원조사 등의 누적된 자료와 다양한 통계모형을 이용하여 기후변화에 따른 생태권역별·임상별 산림바이오매스 변화를 예측하였다. 그 결과 시간 경과에 따른 산림 바이오매스 변화량은 생태권역별·임상별로 서로 다른 패턴을 보였다. 산악권역, 남동산야권역, 남서산야권역에서는 시간이 경과함에 따라 모든 임상에 서산림 바이오매스가 감소하는 것으로 예측되었다. 반면에 중부산야권역의 침엽수림과 혼효림은 기후변화의 영향으로 바이오매스가 증가하는 것으로 분석되었다. 또한 해안도서권역에서는 침엽수림을 제외한 임상에서 산림 바이오매스가 증가하는 것으로 추정되었다. 본 연구는 기후변화 시나리오에 따른 지위지수 추정치변화에 근거하여 산림 바이오매스 변화량을 산출함으로써 기후변화에 따른 산림재해 변화 패턴을 예측할 수 있는 정보를 마련하였다. 본 연구의 결과는 산림재해 대응전략 수립에 필요한 정보로 활용될 수 있을 것으로 기대된다.

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