한국농림기상학회지, 제 15권 제1호(2013) (pISSN 1229-5671, eISSN 2288-1859)
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 15, No. 1, (2013), pp. 50~58
DOI: 10.5532/KJAFM.2013.15.1.050
ⓒ Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License.


신 기후변화시나리오 조건에서 한반도 봄꽃 개화일 전망

김진희(1), 천화(2), 윤진일(3)
(1)(재)국가농림기상센터, (2)국립산림과학원, (3)경희대학교 식물환경신소재공학과

(2013년 03월 04일 접수; 2013년 03월 24일 수정; 2013년 03월 25일 수락)

Outlook on Blooming Dates of Spring Flowers in the Korean
Peninsula under the RCP8.5 Projected Climate

Jin-Hee Kim(1), Jung-Hwa Cheon(2), Jin I. Yun(3)
(1)National Center for Agro-Meteorology, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-742, Korea
(2)Korea Forest Research Institute, Seoul 132-712, Korea
(3)College of Life Sciences, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 446-701, Korea

(Received March 04, 2013; Revised March 24, 2013; Accepted March 25, 2013)

ABSTRACT
This study was carried out to evaluate the geospatial characteristics of blooming date migration in three major spring flowers across North and South Korea as influenced by climate change. A thermal time-based phenology model driven by daily maximum and minimum temperature was adjusted for the key parameters (i.e., reference temperature, chilling requirement, heating requirement) used for predicting blooming of forsythia, azaleas, and Japanese cherry. The model was run by the RCP 8.5 projected temperature outlook over the Korean Peninsula and produced the mean booming dates for the three climatological normal years in the future (2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100) at a 12.5 km grid spacing. Comparison against the observed blooming date patterns in the baseline climate (1971-2000) showed that there will be a substantial acceleration in blooming dates of the three species, resulting in cherry booming in February and flowers of azaleas and forsythia found at the top of mountain Baikdu by the 2071-2100 period. Flowering dates of the three species in the near future (2011-2040) may be accelerated by 3-5 days at minimum and 10-11 days at maximum compared with that in the baseline period (1971-2000). Those values corresponding to the middle future (2041-2070) can be from a minimum of 9-11 days to a maximum of 23-24 days. Blooming date of Japanese cherry can be accelerated by 26 days on average for the far future (2071-2100). The acceleration seems more prominent at islands and coastal plain areas than over inland mountainous areas.

Keyword: Blooming date, Climate change, forsythia, azaleas, Japanese cherry, RCP8.5

MAIN

적요

일 최고기온 및 최저기온에 의해 구동되는 개화생리모형에 근거하여 개나리, 진달래, 벚꽃의 온도시간을 추정하고 이를 이용하여 기후변화에 따른 미래 봄꽃개화일의 지리적 분포를 한반도 전 지역을 대상으로 파악하고자 하였다. RCP8.5 기반의 한반도 전역 12.5km 해상도 일별 기온전망자료를 이용하여 미래 3개 평년(2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100)의 개화일을 예측하고 이를 기준평년(1971-2000)의 실측 분포와 비교하였다. 봄꽃 3종 모두 지속적으로 개화시기가 앞당겨지고 기준평년에는 개화 불가능지역으로 분류되는 양강도와 개마고원까지 미래에는 개화가 가능해질 것으로 전망된다. 가까운 미래인 2011-2040 평년에는 봄꽃 3종 모두 지역에 따라 최소 3~5일에서 최대 10~11일까지 개화시기가 단축될 것으로 예상된다. 중간 미래인 2041-2100 기간에는 최소 9~11일부터 최대 23~24일까지 개화시기가 단축되고, 먼 미래인 2071-2100 평년이 되면 개나리와 진달래는 최소 17~19일에서 최대 36~38일까지 평균 25일이 줄어들며, 벚꽃개화는 평균 26일이 단축될 것으로 전망된다. 개화일 단축일수는 내륙 산간지대보다 해안도서 및 평야지대에서 커지는 경향이다.

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