한국농림기상학회지, 제 15권 제1호(2013) (pISSN 1229-5671, eISSN 2288-1859)
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 15, No. 1, (2013), pp. 40~49
DOI: 10.5532/KJAFM.2013.15.1.040
ⓒ Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License.


동네예보와 생물계절모형을 이용한 봄꽃개화일 예측

김진희(1), 이은정(2), 윤진일(3)
(1)(재)국가농림기상센터, (2)기상청 한반도기상기후팀, (3)경희대학교 식물환경신소재공학과

(2013년 03월 19일 접수; 2013년 03월 23일 수정; 2013년 03월 23일 수락)

Prediction of Blooming Dates of Spring Flowers by Using
Digital Temperature Forecasts and Phenology Models

Jin-Hee Kim(1), Eun-Jung Lee(2), Jin I. Yun(3)
(1)National Center for Agro-Meteorology, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-742, Korea
(2)Korean Peninsula Weather and Climate Division, KMA, Seoul 156-720, Korea
(3)College of Life Sciences, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 446-701, Korea

(Received March 19, 2013; Revised March 23, 2013; Accepted March 23, 2013)

ABSTRACT
Current service system of the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) for blooming date forecasting in spring depends on regression equations derived from long term observations in both temperature and phenology at a given station. This regression based system does not allow a timely correction or update of forecasts that are highly sensitive to fluctuating weather conditions. Furthermore, the system cannot afford plant responses to climate extremes which were not observed before. Most of all, this method may not be applicable to locations other than that which the regression equations were derived from. This note suggests a way to replace the location restricted regression equations with a thermal time based phenology model to complement the KMA blooming forecast system. Necessary parameters such as reference temperature, chilling requirement and heating requirement were derived from phenology data for forsythia, azaleas and Japanese cherry at 29 KMA stations for the 1951-1980 period to optimize spring phenology prediction model for each species. Best fit models for each species were used to predict blooming dates and the results were compared with the observed dates to produce a correction grid across the whole nation. The models were driven by the KMA’s daily temperature data at a 5km grid spacing and subsequently adjusted by the correction grid to produce the blooming date maps. Validation with the 1971-2012 period data showed the RMSE of 2-3 days for Japanese cherry, showing a feasibility of operational service; whereas higher RMSE values were observed with forsythia and azaleas.

Keyword: Blooming date forecast, Spring phenology, Azaleas, Forsythia, Cherry blossom

MAIN

적요

기상청에서 시민들에게 제공하는 봄꽃 개화일 예보 서비스는 한 지점에서 장기간 수집된 기후자료와 개화일 관측자료로부터 얻은 회귀식에 의존하므로 매일의 기온변화에 따른 수정작업이 어렵고, 과거에 관측되지 않았던 기후변이에 대한 반응을 반영하지 못하며, 기상관서 이외의 지역에 대한 개화일 예보가 불가능한 단점이 있다. 이러한 단점을 보완하기 위한 방법으로 일별 기온자료만으로 구동되는 생물계절모형을 현업서비스용으로 전환하는 연구를 수행하였다. 남한지역 29개 기상대로부터 1951-1980 기간의 개나리, 진달래, 벚꽃 관측 표준목의 발아일과 개화일 관측자료 및 기온자료를 수집하여 생물계절모형의 최적모수(기준온도, 저온요구도, 고온요구도)를 추정하고 이를 반영한 개화예측모형을 작성하였다. 생물계절관측의 불확실성을 지역별 오차보정 분포도로 표현하여 생물계절모형과 결합함으로써 봄꽃 3종의 개화일 예측방법을 확립하였다. 이 방법에 의해 1971-2012 기간의 29개 지점 봄꽃 개화일을 예측한 다음 실측 개화자료와 비교한 결과 벚꽃의 경우 RMSE가 2~3일로서 실용성이 있음을 확인하였다.

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