한국농림기상학회지, 제 15권 제1호(2013) (pISSN 1229-5671, eISSN 2288-1859)
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 15, No. 1, (2013), pp. 26~39
DOI: 10.5532/KJAFM.2013.15.1.026
ⓒ Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License.


파종일 변경이 기후변화 조건에서 곡물생산량에 미치는 영향

김대준(1), 노재환(2), 김정곤(3), 윤진일(1)
(1)경희대학교 식물환경신소재공학과, (2)국립식량과학원 벼맥류부,
(3)(사)한국맥류산업발전연구원

(2013년 03월 04일 접수; 2013년 03월 23일 수정; 2013년 03월 23일 수락)

The Influence of Shifting Planting Date on Cereal Grains
Production under the Projected Climate Change

Dae-Jun Kim(1), Jae-Hwan Roh(2), Jung-Gon Kim(3), Jin I. Yun(1)
(1)College of Life Science, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 446-701, Korea
(2)Rice Research Division, National Institute of Crop Science, Iksan 570-080, Korea
(3)Korean Wheat & Barley Industry Development Institute, Suwon 441-857, Korea

(Received March 04, 2013; Revised March 23, 2013; Accepted March 23, 2013)

ABSTRACT
Yield reduction in major cereal grains seems unavoidable with the existing cropping systems under the projected climate change in Korea. Crop models were used to predict the effects of planting date shift on grain yields of rice, winter barley and soybeans at 64 agroclimatic zones in Korea. The shift of planting date by 7, 14, and 21 days before and after the recommended planting dates were incorporated in DSSAT experiment files to simulate growth, development and grain yields of major cereal crops. These included 3 rice cultivars representing early-, medium- and late-maturity groups, 1 winter barley and 1 soybean cultivars. Partial mitigation in yield reduction was found with earlier planting in the early maturing rice cultivar and with delayed planting in the late maturing rice cultivar under the RCP8.5 projected climate change in Korea. Additional yield increase in winter barley was expected by earlier planting treatments. Soybean showed a positive effect on grain yield with earlier planting. However, the rate was much lower than the case with winter barley and delayed planting caused yield reduction.

Keyword: RCP 8.5, Planting date, DSSAT, Rice, Barley, Soybean, Climate change

MAIN

적요

신 기후변화 시나리오에 따라 예상되는 미래환경조건에서 기존의 작부체계로는 여러 작목 및 품종에서 수량 감소가 예상된다. 본 연구에서는 기후변화에 대처할 수 있는 재배기술 중 하나인 파종시기 이동이 주요 식량작물의 수량 변동과 어떤 관계가 있는지 작물모형에 의해 전망하였다. 현재기후조건에 맞는 기존 재배기술을 고수하였을 때 예상되는 미래의 생육 및 수량추세를 대조구로 두고, 파종 혹은 이앙시기를 7, 14, 21일씩 단축 및 지연하여 모의한 결과를 서로 비교하였다. 벼의 경우 조생종은 조기파종에 의해, 중만 생종의 경우 지연파종에 의해 수량저하 현상을 어느정도 완화시킬 수 있었다. 기존 작부체계에서도 지구온난화에 의해 증수가 예상되는 겨울보리의 경우 조기
파종에 의해 추가적인 증수효과를 기대 할 수 있다. 콩은 조기파종으로 인한 증수효과를 기대할 수 있었으나, 그 정도는 보리에 비해 적었으며, 파종일 지연 시감수현상이 발생하였다.

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