한국농림기상학회지, 제 3권 제4호(2001) (pISSN 1229-5671, eISSN 2288-1859) Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 3, No. 4, (2001), pp. 220~237 ⓒ Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License. 기후변화와 농업생산의 전망과 대책 윤성호, 임정남, 이정택, 심교문, 황규홍 농촌진흥청 농업과학기술원 농업환경부 (2001년 10월 30일 수락) Climate Change and Coping with Vulnerability ofAgricultural Productivity Seong-Ho Yun, Jeong-Nam Im, Jeong-Taek Lee, Kyo-Moon Shim and Kyu-Hong hwang National Institute of Agricultural Science and Technology RDA, Suweon 441-707, Korea (Manuscript accepted October 30, 2001) ABSTRACT Over the 20th century global temperature increase has been 0.6$\small{^{\circ}C}$. The globally averaged surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8$\small{^{\circ}C}$ over the period 1990 to 2100. Nearly all land areas will have higher maximum temperature and minimum temperature, and fewer cold days and frost days. More intense precipitation events will take plate over many areas. Over most mid-latitude continental interiors will have increased summer continental drying and associated risk of drought. By 2100, if the annual surface temperature increase is 3.5$\small{^{\circ}C}$, we will have 15.9$\small{^{\circ}C}$ from 12.4$\small{^{\circ}C}$ at present. Also the annual precipitation will range 1,118-2,447 mm from 972-1,841 mm at present in Korea. Consequently the average crop periods for summer crops will be 250 days that prolonged 32 days than at present. In the case of gradual increase of global warming, an annual crop can be adapted to the changing climate through the selection of filial generations in breeding process. The perennial crops such as an apple should be shifted the chief producing place to northern or high latitude areas where below 13.5$\small{^{\circ}C}$ of the annual surface temperature. If global warming happens suddenly over the threshold atmospheric greenhouse gases, then all ecosystems will have tremendous disturbance. Agricultural land-use plan, which state that farmers decide what to plant, based on their climate-based advantages. Therefore, farmers will mitigate possible negative imparts associated with the climate change. The farmers will have application to use agricultural meteorological information system, and agricultural long-range weather forecast system for their agroecosystems management. The ideal types of crops under $\small{CO_2}$ increase and climate change conditions are considered that ecological characteristics need indispensable to accomplish the sustainable agriculture as the diversification of genetic resources from yield-oriented to biomass-oriented characteristics with higher potential of $\small{CO_2}$ absorption and primary production. In addition, a heat-and-cold tolerance, a pest resistance, an environmental adaptability, and production stability should be also incorporated collectively into integrated agroecosystem. Keyword: climate change, global warming, agroclimate, agroecosystem, crop ideotype MAIN REFERENCES