한국농림기상학회지, 제 3권 제1호(2001) (pISSN 1229-5671, eISSN 2288-1859) Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 3, No. 1, (2001), pp. 37~43 ⓒ Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License. 기상자료 공간내삽과 작물 생육모의기법에 의한전국의 읍면 단위 쌀 생산량 예측 윤진일(1), 조경숙(2) (1)경희대학교 생명자원과학연구원/농학과 449-701 경기도 용인시 기흥읍 서천리 (2)기상연구소 응용기상연구실 156-720 서울시 동작구 신대방동 460-18 (2001년 02월 16일 접수) Yield and Production Forecasting of Paddy Rice at a Sub-countyScale Resolution by Using Crop Simulation andWeather Interpolation Techniques JinI Yun(1), KyungSook Cho(2) (1)Institute of Life Science and Natural Resources/Department of Agronomy Kyung Hee University, Suwon 449-701, Korea (2)Applied Meteorology Lab., Meteorological Research Institute 460-18 Sindaebang-dong, Dongjak-gu, Seoul 156-720, Korea (Manuscript received 16 February 2001) ABSTRACT Crop status monitoring and yield prediction at higher spatial resolution is a valuable tool in various decision making processes including agricultural policy making by the national and local governments. A prototype crop forecasting system was developed to project the size of rice crop across geographic areas nationwide, based on daily weather pattern. The system consists of crop models and the input data for 1,455 cultivation zone units (the smallest administrative unit of local government in South Korea called “Myun”) making up the coterminous South Korea. CERES-rice, a rice crop growth simulation model, was tuned to have genetic characteristics pertinent to domestic cultivars. Daily maximum/minimum temperature, solar radiation, and precipitation surface on 1km by 1km grid spacing were prepared by a spatial interpolation of 63 point observations from the Korea Meteorological Administration network. Spatial mean weather data were derived for each Myun and transformed to the model input format. Soil characteristics and management information at each Myun were available from the Rural Development Administration. The system was applied to the forecasting of national rice production for the recent 3 years (1997 to 1999). The model was run with the past weather data as of September 15 each year, which is about a month earlier than the actual harvest date. Simulated yields of 1,455 Myuns were grouped into 162 counties by acreage-weighted summation to enable the validation, since the official production statistics from the Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry is on the county basis. Forecast yields were less sensitive to the changes in annual climate than the reported yields and there was a relatively weak correlation between the forecast and the reported yields. However, the projected size of rice crop at each county, which was obtained by multiplication of the mean yield with the acreage, was close to the reported production with the $\small{r^2}$ values higher than 0.97 in all three years. Keyword: CERES-rice, GIS, spatial interpolation, crop models, yield forecasting, rice crop MAIN REFERENCES