한국농림기상학회지, 제 4권 제4호(2002) (pISSN 1229-5671, eISSN 2288-1859)
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 4, No. 4, (2002), pp. 203~212
ⓒ Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License.


도시효과를 고려한 일 최저기온의 월별 평년값 분포 추정

최재연(1), 윤진일(2)
(1)경기도 화성시농업기술센터, (2)경희대학교 생태시스템공학과/생명자원과학연구원

(2002년 09월 06일 접수; 2002년 10월 15일 수락)

Implementing the Urban Effect in an Interpolation Scheme for
Monthly Normals of Daily Minimum Temperature

Jae-Yeon Choi(1), Jin I. Yun(2)
(1)Hwasung City Agricultural Technology Center, KARES, Hwaseong 445-890, Korea
(2)Department of Ecosystems Engineering/Institute of Life Science and Natural Resources,
Kyung Hee University, Suwon 449-701, Korea

(Received September 06, 2002; Accepted October 15, 2002)

ABSTRACT
This study was conducted to remove the urban heat island effects embedded in the interpolated surfaces of daily minimum temperature in the Korean Peninsula. Fifty six standard weather stations are usually used to generate the gridded temperature surface in South Korea. Since most of the weather stations are located in heavily populated and urbanized areas, the observed minimum temperature data are contaminated with the so-called urban heat island effect. Without an appropriate correction, temperature estimates over rural area or forests might deviate significantly from the actual values. We simulated the spatial pattern of population distribution within any single population reporting district (city or country) by allocating the reported population to the “urban” pixels of a land cover map with a 30 by 30 m spacing. By using this “digital population model” (DPM), we can simulate the horizontal diffusion of urban effect, which is not possible with the spatially discontinuous nature of the population statistics fer each city or county. The temperature estimation error from the existing interpolation scheme, which considers both the distance and the altitude effects, was regressed to the DPMs smoothed at 5 different scales, i.e., the radial extent of 0.5, 1.5, 2.5, 3.5 and 5.0 km. Optimum regression models were used in conjunction with the distance-altitude interpolation to predict monthly normals of daily minimum temperature in South Korea far 1971-2000 period. Cross validation showed around 50% reduction in terms of RMSE and MAE over all months compared with those by the conventional method.conventional method.

Keyword: global warming, urbanization, urban heat island, digital population model

MAIN

적요

주로 도시에 소재하는 표준기상관측소 자료의 공간 내삽에 의해 일 최저기온의 평년값을 추정할 때, 도시 열섬효과의 전이에 의해 전원지역에서 과다추정 되는 오류를 수정하기 위해 본 연구를 수행하였다. 도시열섬효과의 공간적인 확산을 모의하기 위해 먼저 불연속적인 변량인 시군 행정구역단위 인구를 지표피복도 상의 시가지 픽셀에만 할당하여 규칙적인 격자점 단위의 평균인구로 변환함으로써 연속적인 변량인 수치인구모형(DPM)으로 표현하였다. 다섯 가지 평활화 DPM 가운데 최적으로 판명된 사방 2.5 km DPM과 기온추정 오차간 회귀식을 기존의 거리-고도 보정 내삽과정에 결합하였다. 이 방법을 적용하여 추정된 평년(1971-2000) 월별 일 최저기온의 추정오차는 기존방법에 비해 최소 50%가 개선되었다.

REFERENCES

Cho, H. M., C. H. Cho and K. W. Chung, 1988: Air temperature changes due to urbanization in Seoul area. Journal of Korean Meteorological Society, 24, 27-37 (In Korean with English abstract).

Choi, J. Y., 2002: Interpolating monthly normals of daily minimum temperature over South Korea based on urban heat island correction. Proceedings of 4th Conference of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology. Korean Society of gricultural and Forest Meteorology (Nov. 1, Suwon, Korea) 81-84.

Chung Y. S. and M. B. Yoon, 1999: Recent climate change and related factors observed in Korea. Journal of Korean Meteorological Society, 35(3), 309-318.

Fujibe, F., 1988: Weekday-weekend differences of urban climates. Part 2 Detection of temperature differences for medium- and small-sized sites. Journal of Meteorological Society of Japan, 66(2), 373-376.

Han, Y. H., B. H. Kim and D. I. Lee, 1993: A study on the urban heat island in Pusan, Korea. Journal of Korean Meteorological Society, 29(3), 205-216 (In Korean with English abstract).

Hansen, J. and S. Lebedeff, 1987: Global trends of measured surface air temperature. Journal of Geophysical Research, 92, 637-658.

Hansen, J., W. Lawrence, D. Easterling, T. Peterson, T. Karl, R. Ruedy, M. Sato and M. Imhoff, 2001: A closer look at United States and global surface temperature change. Journal of Geophysical Research (D:Atmospheres), 106(20), 23947-23963.

Hulme, M., Z. -C. Zhao and T. Jiang, 1994: Recent and future climate change in East Asia. International Journal of Climatology, 14(6), 637-658.

Jones, P., P. M. Kelly and C. M. Goodess, 1989: The effect of urban warming on the Northern hemisphere temperature average. Journal of Climate, 2, 285-290.

Kang, I. S., 1995: Examination of the uncertainties of global warming. Journal of Korean Meteorological Society, 31(2), 187-190 (In Korean with English abstract).

Karl, T. R., H. F. Diaz and G. Kukla, 1988: Urbanization: its detection in the United States climate record. Journal of Climate, 1, 1099-1123.

Kato, H., 1996: A statistical method for separating urban effect trends from observed temperature data and its application to Japanese temperature records. Journal of Meteorological Society of Japan, 74(5), 639-653.

Kim, M. K., I. S. Kang and C. H. Kwak, 1999: The estimation of urban warming amounts due to urbanization in Korea for the recent 40 years. Journal of Korean Meteorological Society, 35(1), 118-126 (In Korean with English abstract).

KMA, 2001: Climatological Normals of Korea 1971-2000. Korea Meteorological Administration, 632pp.

Lee, M. I. and I. S. Kang 1997: Temperature variability and warming trend in Korea associated with global warming. Journal of Korean Meteorological Society, 33(3), 429-443 (In Korean with English abstract).

Nakatsuji, K., A. Yamaki, H. Minami, A. Sato and K. Muraoka, 1997: Effects of urbanization on ground surface temperature in the Kansai District, Japan, based on meterological data. Journal of Global Environment Engineering, 3, 183-197.

Oke, T. R., 1987: Boundary Layer Climates (2nd Edition), Methuen, 291-292.

Park, H. S., 1986: Features of the heat island in Seoul and its surrounding cities. Atmospheric Environment, 20, 1859-1866.

Peterson, T. C., A. Huang, D. A. Mckittrick, K. P. Gallo, J. Lawrimore and T. W. Owen, 1999: Global rural temperature trends. Geophysical Research Letters, 26(3), 329-332.

Rho, C. S., 1973: On the rising trend of air temperature in Seoul area. Journal of Korean Meteorological Society, 9(2), 49-58 (In Korean with English abstract).

Ryoo, S. B. and S. E. Moon, 1995: Detection of warming effects due to industrialization: An accumulated intervention model with an application in Pohang, Korea. Journal of Applied Meteorology, 34, 1466-1471.

Ryoo, S. B., S. E. Moon and B. G. Cho, 1993: Air temperature change due to urbanization in South Korea. Journal of Korean Meteorological Society, 29(2), 99-116 (In Korean with English abstract).

Yoon, I. H., K. D. Min and K. E. Kim, 1994: A study on the meteorological characteristics of Taegu area and its application to the atmospheric dispersion modelling II. Characteristic features of the urban heat island : Case study. Journal of Korean Meteorological Society, 30(2), 303-313 (In Korean with English abstract).

Yun, J. I., J. Y. Choi and J. H. Ahn, 2001: Seasonal trend of elevation effect on daily air temperature in Korea. Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 3, 96-104 (In Korean with English abstract).

Yun, J. I., J. Y. Choi, Y. K. Yoon and U. Chung, 2000: A spatial interpolation model for daily minimum temperature over mountainous regions. Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 2, 175-182 (In Korean with English abstract).