한국농림기상학회지, 제 6권 제4호(2004) (pISSN 1229-5671, eISSN 2288-1859)
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 6, No. 4, (2004), pp. 242~249
ⓒ Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License.


기상특성을 이용한 전국 산불발생확률모형 개발

이시영(1), 한상열(2), 원명수(1), 안상현(1), 이명보(1)
(1)국립산림과학원, (2)경북대학교 임학과

(2004년 11월 14일 접수; 2004년 12월 02일 수락)

Developing of Forest Fire Occurrence Probability Model by
Using the Meteorological Characteristics in Korea

Si Young Lee(1), Sang Yoel Han(2), Myoung Soo Won(1), Sang-Hyun An(1), Myung Bo Lee(1)
(1)Division of Forest Environment, Korea Forest Research Institute, Seoul, Korea
(2)Department of Forestry, Kyungpook National University, Taegu, Korea

(Received November 14, 2004; Accepted December 02, 2004)

ABSTRACT
This study was conducted to develop a forest fire occurrence model using meteorological characteristics for the practical purpose of forecasting forest fire danger. Forest fire in South Korea is highly influenced by humidity, wind speed, and temperature. To effectively forecast forest fire occurrence, we need to develop a forest fire danger rating model using weather factors associated with forest fire. Forest fire occurrence patterns were investigated statistically to develop a forest fire danger rating index using time series weather data sets collected from 8 meteorological observation centers. The data sets were for 5 years from 1997 through 2001. Development of the forest fire occurrence probability model used logistic regression function with forest fire occurrence data and meteorological variables. An eight-province probability model by was developed. The meteorological variables that emerged as affective to forest fire occurrence are effective humidity, wind speed, and temperature. A forest fire occurrence danger rating index of 1 through 10 was developed as a function of daily weather index (DWI).

Keyword: Forest fire occurrence, Meteorological characteristics, Forest fire probability model, Logistic model, Dailly Weather Index(DWI)

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