한국농림기상학회지, 제 8권 제4호(2006) (pISSN 1229-5671, eISSN 2288-1859)
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 8, No. 4, (2006), pp. 250~259
ⓒ Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License.


우리나라의 봄철 순평년 온습도 변화에 따른 산불발생위험성 분석

원명수, 구교상, 이명보
국립산림과학원 산불연구과

(2006년 10월 30일 접수; 2006년 12월 01일 수락)

An Analysis of Forest Fire Occurrence Hazards by Changing
Temperature and Humidity of Ten-day Intervals for 30 Years in Spring

Myoung Soo Won, Kyo Sang Koo, Myung Bo Lee
Division of Forest Fire, Korea Forest Research Institute, Cheongyangri-Dong,
Dongdaemun-Ku, Seoul 130-712, Korea

(Received October 30, 2006; Accepted December 01, 2006)

ABSTRACT
This study looks into forest fire occurrence hazards according to the change of temperature and humidity over thirty years at interval of ten days. We used data from the forest fire inventory from 1995 to 2004 and weather data such as average temperature and relative humidity for 30 years from 1971 to 2000. These data were expressed as a database with ten-day intervals for 76 weather stations. Forest fire hazards occurred in the spring season from the end of March to the middle of April. For the first step, the primitive surface of temperature and humidity was interpolated by IDW (the standard interpolation method). These thematic maps have a 1 km by 1 km grid spacing resolution. Next, we executed a simple regression analysis after extracting forest fire frequency, temperature and humidity values from 76 weather stations. The results produced a coefficient of determination (R2) ranging from 0.4 to 0.6. Moreover, the estimation of forest fire occurrence hazards during early April was very high at Gyeongbuk Interior, Chungcheong Interior and part of Gangwon. The range of temperature and humidity having an influence on forest fire occurrence was as follows: average temperature and relative humidity in early April was 9-12oC and 61-65%. At the end of March, temperature was 6-10oC, humidity 62-67%, and temperature was 11-14oC and humidity 60-67% in the middle of April.

Keyword: Forest fire, Forest fire occurrence hazards, Spring, Temperature and humidity, IDW, Regression analysis, GIS

MAIN

적요

열흘간격의 순평년 온습도 변화에 따른 산불발생위험성을 분석하기 위해 1995년부터 2004년까지 과거 10년 동안의 산불통계자료와 1971년부터 2000년까지 순평년 평균온도 및 습도자료를 이용하였다. 순평년 온습도 변화에 따른 산불발생위험성 평가를 위해 산불발생빈도가 높고 대형산불 발생이 가장 많은 시기인 3월 하순부터 4월 중순까지를 대상으로 하였다. 분석을 위해 가장 일반적으로 사용하는 거리역산가중(IDW) 방법을 이용하여 우리나라 전역의 산불발생빈도 및 온습도 표면을 1 km 간격으로 추정하였다. 산불발생빈도가 가장 높은 4월 초순은 중부내륙, 경기동부, 동해안 지역에서 산불발생 빈도가 높게 나타났으며, 순평년 온습도 변화에 따른 산불발생위험 회귀분석 결과 결정계수(R2)가 0.4-0.6 사이에 분포하여 온도와 습도를 독립변수로 하는 다중회귀분석 방법보다 설명력이 향상되는 결과를 보였다. 산불발생에 영향을 미치는 평균온도의 범위는 3월 하순이 6-10oC, 4월 초순은 9-12oC, 4월 중순은 11-14oC 구간에서 산불발생이 많았고, 평균습도의 경우 3월 하순은 62-67%, 4월 초순은 61-65%, 4월 중순은 60-67% 구간에서 산불발생빈도가 높았다.

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산림청 , 2005: 2005년 산불통계자료