한국농림기상학회지, 제 8권 제2호(2006) (pISSN 1229-5671, eISSN 2288-1859)
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 8, No. 2, (2006), pp. 68~76
ⓒ Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License.


기후변화에 따른 벚꽃 개화일의 시공간 변이

경희대학교 생명과학부/생명자원과학연구원

(2006년 04월 19일 접수; 2006년 05월 20일 수락)

Climate Change Impact on the Flowering Season of Japanese Cherry
(Prunus serrulata var. spontanea) in Korea during 1941-2100

Department of Ecosystem Engineering/Institute of Life Science and Natural Resources
Kyung Hee University, Suwon 446-701, Korea

(Received April 19, 2006; Accepted May 20, 2006)

ABSTRACT
A thermal time-based two-step phenological model was used to project flowering dates of Japanese cherry in South Korea from 1941 to 2100. The model consists of two sequential periods: the rest period described by chilling requirement and the forcing period described by heating requirement. Daily maximum and minimum temperature are used to calculate daily chill units until a pre-determined chilling requirement for rest release is met. After the projected rest release date, daily heat units (growing degree days) are accumulated until a pre-determined heating requirement for flowering is achieved. Model calculations using daily temperature data at 18 synoptic stations during 1955-2004 were compared with the observed blooming dates and resulted in 3.9 days mean absolute error, 5.1 days root mean squared error, and a correlation coefficient of 0.86. Considering that the phonology observation has never been fully standardized in Korea, this result seems reasonable. Gridded data sets of daily maximum and minimum temperature with a 270 m grid spacing were prepared for the climatological years 1941-1970 and 1971-2000 from observations at 56 synoptic stations by using a spatial interpolation scheme for correcting urban heat island effect as well as elevation effect. A 25km-resolution temperature data set covering the Korean Peninsula, prepared by the Meteorological Research Institute of Korea Meteorological Administration under the condition of Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change-Special Report on Emission Scenarios A2, was converted to 270 m gridded data for the climatological years 2011-2040, 2041-2070 and 2071-2100. The model was run by the gridded daily maximum and minimum temperature data sets, each representing a climatological normal year for 1941-1970, 1971-2000, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100. According to the model calculation, the spatially averaged flowering date for the 1971-2000 normal is shorter than that for 1941-1970 by 5.2 days. Compared with the current normal (1971-2000), flowering of Japanese cherry is expected to be earlier by 9, 21, and 29 days in the future normal years 2011-2040, 2041-2070, and 2071-2100, respectively. Southern coastal areas might experience springs with incomplete or even no Japanese cherry flowering caused by insufficient chilling for breaking bud dormancy.

Keyword: Dormancy, Flowering, Phonology, Japanese cherry, Global warming, Climate change, Urban heat island, Data assimilation

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