한국농림기상학회지, 제 8권 제1호(2006) (pISSN 1229-5671, eISSN 2288-1859)
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 8, No. 1, (2006), pp. 28~35
ⓒ Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License.


발아시기 정밀추정에 의한 포도 만상해 경보방법 개선

정재은, 윤진일
경희대학교 생태시스템공학과

(2005년 12월 10일 접수; 2006년 02월 23일 수락)

Phonology and Minimum Temperature as Dual Determinants
of Late Frost Risk at Vineyards

Department of Ecosystem Engineering Kyung Hee University, Suwon 449-701, Korea

(Received December 10, 2005; Accepted February 23, 2006)

ABSTRACT
An accurate prediction of budburst in grapevines is indispensable for vineyard frost warning system operations in spring because cold tolerance depends heavily on phonology. However, existing frost warning systems utilize only daily minimum temperature forecasts since there is no way to estimate the site-specific phonology of grapevines. A budburst estimation model based on thermal time was used to project budburst dates of two grapevine cultivars (Kyoho and Campbell Early), and advisories were issued depending on phonology as well as temperature. A ‘warning’ is issued if two conditions are met: the forecasted daily minimum temperature falls below -1.5oC and the estimated phonology is within the budburst period. A ‘watch’ is issued for a temperature range of -1.5 to +1.5oC with the same phonology condition. Validation experiments were done at 8 vineyards in Anseong in spring 2005, and the results showed a good agreement with the observations. This method was applied to the climatological normal year (1971-2000) to determine sites with high frost risk at a 30 m grid cell resolution. Among 608,585 grid cells constituting Anseong, 1,059 cells were identified as high risk for growing Kyoho and 2,788 cells for Campbell Early.

Keyword: Frost warning, Kyoho, Campbell Early, Budburst, flowering

MAIN

적요

근년에 자주 나타나고 있는 봄철 과원의 서리피해는 관측된 기온이 비슷한 지역일지라도 개화 혹은 발아단계의 과원에서 집중되고 있어 효율적인 상해 경보시스템 운영을 위해서는 발아기 혹은 만개기의 정확한 예측이 필요하다. 품종별 모수가 알려져 있는 포도 거봉, Campbell Early를 대상으로 생물계절모형을 적용하여 발아기를 추정하고 최저기온 예상치와 함께 늦서리 위험도 추정방법을 제시하였다. 이 방법은 발아 이후에 최저기온이 영하로 내려가면 상해가 발생한다고 가정하는데, 추정값의 오차범위를 고려한 발아일 이후 일 최저기온이 -1.5oC 이하로 떨어지면 경보(Warning), ±1.5oC 사이면 주의보(Watch)를 발령한다. 이 방법을 2004년과 2005년 4월 경기 안성의 포도원에 적용하여 결과의 신뢰도를 확인하였다. 같은 방법으로 1971-2000 평년의 기후조건에서 예상되는 안성지역의 포도 늦서리피해 위험지역을 30 m의 고해상도 전자기후도로 표현하였다. 안성시 전역을 30 m 격자점으로 표현하면 총 608,585개로 구성되는데, 평년의 포도 상해위험지역 판정결과 거봉은 1,059지역이, Campbell Early는 2,788지역이 주의지대로 예상된다.

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