한국농림기상학회지, 제 9권 제3호(2007) (pISSN 1229-5671, eISSN 2288-1859)
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 9, No. 3, (2007), pp. 209~215
DOI: 10.5532/KJAFM.2007.9.3.209
ⓒ Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License.


공간기후모형을 이용한 나주지역 배 개화기 일 최저기온 예보

한점화(1), 이병렬(2), 조경숙(3), 최장전(1), 최진호(1), 장한익(4)
(1)원예연구소 배시험장, (2)기상청 수원기상대,
(3)기상청 국가농업기상센터, (4)원예연구소 과수과

(2007년 04월 16일 접수; 2007년 09월 13일 수락)

Forecasting of Daily Minimum Temperature during Pear Blooming
Season in Naju Area using a Topoclimate-based
Spatial Interpolation Model

J. H. Han(1), B. L. Lee(2), K. S. Cho(3), J. J. Choi(1), J. H. Choi(1),, H. I. Jang(4)
(1)Pear Experiment Station NHRI, RDA,
(2)Suwon Weather Station, KMA,
(3)National Center for AgroMeteorology, KMA,
(4)Fruit Research Division, NHRI, RDA

(Received April 16, 2007; Accepted September 13, 2007)

ABSTRACT
To improve the accuracy of frost warning system for pear orchard in a complex terrain in Naju area, the daily minimum temperature forecasted by Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) was interpolated using a regional climate model based on topoclimatic estimation and optimum scale interpolation from 2004 to 2005. Based on the validation experiments done for three pear orchards in the spring of 2004, the results showed a good agreement between the observed and predicted values, resulting in improved predictability compared to the forecast from Korea Meteorological Administration. The differences between the observed and the predicted temperatures were -2.1~2.7oC (on average -0.4oC) in the valley, -1.6~2.7oC (on average -0.4oC) in the riverside and -1.1~3.5oC (on average 0.6oC) in the hills. Notably, the errors have been reduced significantly for the valley and riverside areas that are more affected by the cold air drainage and more susceptible to frost damage than hills.

Keyword: Minimum temperature, Frost, Pear, Interpolation model

MAIN

적요

2004년부터 2005년까지 복잡 지형에 위치한 나주지역 배 과수원에 대하여 광역적 기후 지형 모형을 적용, 일 최저 기온의 공간분포를 정밀 추정함으로써 서리 경고 시스템의 정확성을 향상시키고자 하였다. 2004년 봄, 세 곳의 배 과수원에 대해 모형을 적용한 결과, 관측값과 일치함을 보여 주었고 예측력은 기상청 예측 결과보다 더 향상되었다. 실측과 모형에 의한일 최저 기온의 차이는 골짜기에서 -2.1~+2.7oC(평균-0.4oC), 강변에서 -1.6~+2.7oC(평균 -0.4oC), 구릉지에서 -1.1~+3.5oC(평균 0.6oC)였다. 냉기침강 효과가 크고 서리 내습 가능성이 높은 골짜기와 강변의 오차가 크게 줄어들었다.

REFERENCES

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