한국농림기상학회지, 제 9권 제3호(2007) (pISSN 1229-5671, eISSN 2288-1859)
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, Vol. 9, No. 3, (2007), pp. 195~202
DOI: 10.5532/KJAFM.2007.9.3.195
ⓒ Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License.


북향개방지수가 복잡지형의 일 최고기온 추정오차 저감에 미치는 영향

정유란(1), 이광회(2), 윤진일(3)
(1)서울대학교 식물생산학부, (2)상지대학교 친환경식물학부,
(3)경희대학교 생태시스템공학과

(2007년 06월 01일 접수; 2007년 09월 06일 수락)

Performance of Northern Exposure Index in Reducing Estimation
Error for Daily Maximum Temperature over a Rugged Terrain

Uran Chung(1), Kwang-Hoe Lee(2), Jin I. Yun(3)
(1)Department of Plant Science, Seoul National University, Seoul 151-742, Korea
(2)Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, Sangji University, Wonju 220-702, Korea
(3)Department of Ecosystem Engineering, Kyung Hee University, Yongin 446-701, Korea

(Received June 01, 2007; Accepted September 06, 2007)

ABSTRACT
The normalized difference in incident solar energy between a target surface and a level surface (overheating index, OHI) is useful in eliminating estimation error of site-specific maximum temperature in complex terrain. Due to the complexity in its calculation, however, an empirical proxy variable called northern exposure index (NEI) which combines slope and aspect has been used to estimate OHI based on empirical relationships between the two. An experiment with real-world landscape and temperature data was carried out to evaluate performance of the NEI – derived OHI (N-OHI) in reduction of spatial interpolation error for daily maximum temperature compared with that by the original OHI. We collected daily maximum temperature data from 7 sites in a mountainous watershed with a <149 km2 area and a 795m elevation range (651~1,445m) in Pyongchang, Kangwon province. Northern exposure index was calculated for the entire 166,050 grid cells constituting the watershed based on a 30-m digital elevation model. Daily OHI was calculated for the same watershed ana regressed to the variation of NEI. The regression equations were used to estimate N-OHI for 15th of each month. Deviations in daily maximum temperature at 7 sites from those measured at the nearby synoptic station were calculated from June 2006 to February 2007 and regressed to the N-OHI. The same procedure was repeated with the original OHI values. The ratio sum of square errors contributable by the N-OHI were 0.46 (winter), 0.24 (fall), and 0.01 (summer), while those by the original OHI were 0.52, 0.37 and 0.15, respectively.

Keyword: BioSIM, Overheating index, Northern exposure index, Daily maximum temperature, Geospatial interpolation

MAIN

적요

수평면과 경사면간의 일사수광량 편차의 정규화변량인 과열지수는 산악지형에서 일 최고기온 추정오차를 줄이는데 효과가 있다고 알려져 있다. 하지만 계산의 복잡성 때문에 경사도와 경사방향에 근거한 매개변량인 개방지수를 먼저 계산하고 이를 이용하여 과열지수를 간접적으로 추정하는 방법이 널리 쓰이고 있다. 이러한 개방지수 매개 간접추정법이 우리나라와 같이 복잡한 산악지형에서 일 최고기온 추정에 적합한지를 알아보기 위해 강원도 평창군에 위치한 도암댐 표준유역(면적 149 km2, 표고범위 651~1,445m)을 대상으로 야외실험을 실시하였다. 이 지역의 30m 해상도 수치고도모형으로부터 시험유역의 166,050개 격자점의 개방지수와 과열지수를 계산하였다. 이들 간의 관계를 계절별 최적 회귀모형으로 나타내고 이로부터 매월 15일의 과열지수를 개방지수로부터 추정하였다. 인근 대관령기상대와 비슷한 고도(해발 844m)에 경사방향이 서로 다른 7개 지점을 선정하여 온도계를 설치하고 2006년 6월부터 2007년 2월까지의 기온을 10분 간격으로 측정하였다. 추정오차를 종속변수로, 각 지점의 추정 과열지수를 설명변수로 둔 회귀분석을 실시한 결과 결정계수가 겨울 0.46, 가을 0.24, 여름 0.02로서 직접 계산된 과열지수를 설명변수로 하는 경우(겨울 0.52, 가을 0.37, 여름 0.15)에 비해 신뢰도가 떨어진다는 것을 확인하였다.

REFERENCES

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